sThe war in Gaza began in October 2023, and death tolls are under heat. It is very difficult to count deaths in a war that is still raging. But experts are still trying to track it down. New studies also suggest that reported numbers are too low.
The exact daily numbers from Gaza are rare. No such tally appears from Ukraine. However, during this war, like in past wars, Hamas-run Gaza authorities issued details on the number of Palestinians where Palestinians were killed. Any doubts about such numbers are reasonable. Hamas probably has an incentive to inflate private losses. However, when the previous conflict ended, estimates from the United Nations of Israel and the number of murdered were roughly in line with those announced during the battle. The war was much broader and lasted longer than before. Many death-counting agencies, such as hospitals, have been destroyed.
As of May 5, the Ministry of Health said 52,615 people had been killed in the war. Like previous wars, the tally does not distinguish between civilians and combatants. In January, Israel estimated that around 20,000 of the people killed were extremists.
The ministry uses two lists based on information from hospitals, and the other to generate official sums from online surveys that reported deaths along with deaths of people who have probably died but not identified. A recent study in the Lancet researchers looked at these two lists and the third list. This was collated using details from social media obituaries (including deaths from traumatic injuries only). The three lists included names and the age and gender of the deceased. Some also had ID numbers. Independent investigators confirmed that people on the ministry’s two lists almost certainly died.
Researchers ignored the ministry’s official total. Instead, data from the start of the war until June 30, 2024 were used to examine the overlap between the three lists. This information was used to estimate the number of people who probably died, and compared it to the Ministry’s formula total. Therefore, if all 30-year-old men on one list also appear in the other two, all such deaths could be counted. However, if the three lists have different names, each list can be very incomplete.
Chart: Economist
Researchers found that due to the very few overlaps, the number of true deaths is probably 46-107% higher than the official ministry’s total. Since last June, assuming the ratio remains the same (indicates that 77,000-109,000 Gazans have been killed if the system reached during the ceasefire, for example, assuming that the system has not been applied to the current tally.
Great uncertainty persists. The list contains errors. Since the start of the war, 3,952 people have appeared on one of two lists compiled by the Ministry of Health, and have since been deleted. Hamas fighter, perhaps a younger man, may be disproportionately lacking from the list (presumably if the group wants to minimize their own losses). Perhaps thousands of unknown numbers are dying from a lack of medical care. The decisive number of people killed in this war is difficult even after it is over. And that might still be a long way to go. ■
This article was published in the Middle East section of the print version under the heading “How many people died?”
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