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Released on May 6, 2025
President Donald Trump’s broad tariffs on foreign products have shocked consumers, businesses and the stock market. But what about certain impacts for a typical American consumer?
Chuck Schumer, the US Senate minority leader, provided figures on CNN’s coalition status on April 27th.
The New York Democrat said as a candidate Trump never fully explained to voters that tariffs would raise costs. “It is estimated that the costs in the US will be increased. American families will have to pay around $4,000 a year,” he said.
Calculating how a typical household will hit includes estimates and assumptions, especially considering when they often tinker with cards’ frequent twirling items. However, Schumer’s figures are roughly in line with the four independent estimates that politics was identified.
Four of the five estimates by groups with different political ideologies range from $3,100 to $4,900 per year. The midpoint of that range coincides with Schumer’s person. The fifth group estimated that the cost to consumers would be $1,243.
The variation in the estimate comes from the group’s different assumptions about how tariffs are absorbed into the economy.
Schumer’s Office did not respond to inquiries for this article.
Some groups estimates are about $4,000
We have identified five estimates regarding the impact of Trump tariffs based on tariffs imposed before April 2 (including Canada and Mexico), 10% board tariffs in almost all countries, and 145% in China. The estimates do not include the impact of national tariffs that Trump announced on April 2 but suspended for 90 days from April 9th.
Here are the estimated descending order:
Yale Budget Lab: The latest estimate from Yale University’s Nonpartisan Budget Lab shows an average loss of $4,900 per household. The lab also provided a more limited calculation, explaining changes in consumer behavior due to tariffs without considering them as losses. This resulted in a loss of $2,600 per family.
The analysis found that low-earning families were hit hardest. Families earning around $30,000 to $40,000 lose 5.1% of their income, and are hit more than twice as much as families well over $100,000.
High customs costs for households at the bottom edge of the income spectrum
American Center for Progress: Liberal Group estimated an average annual loss of $4,600.
American Action Forum: Centre-Right think tank told Politifact that the estimated $3,900 per household loss before January 9 remained a solid guess, despite the fact that it was calculated using China’s 60% tariffs rather than the current 145%. Jacob Jensen, the group’s trade policy analyst, said 145% tends to bring in less income than tariffs set at low prices, as 145% of the 145% are very silenced in the purchasing of curb consumers.
Urban Institute-Brookings Institution Tax Policy Policy Center: The Non-Participation Tax Policy Center estimated the average household loss to be $3,100.
Tax Fund: The Central Right Tax Foundation has made the average loss lower than the other four, at $1,243.
Erica York, the Tax Foundation’s Vice President of Federal Tax Policy, told Politifact that her group’s analysis has a more limited scope, covering direct income losses from higher taxes in 2025.
York said estimates for other groups exceeded the fact that they had to switch to inferior products, loss of quality of life due to consideration of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy response, and the full year impact of 2025 rather than a year.
Different ways like these will create numbers fluctuations, she said.
Our arbitration
Schumer said Trump’s tariffs are “estimated” to mean “American families must pay around $4,000 a year.”
Calculating the impact of tariffs requires guesswork, complicated by Trump’s frequent pauses on certain tariffs.
The estimated value for the four independent groups is averaged from $3,100 a year to $4,900 a year. The fifth used a more restrictive method to estimate a loss of $1,243.
Based on these estimates, we evaluate the statement as accurate, but mostly true, as it requires additional information.
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