On February 18, 2022, six days before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, then-provincial President Joe Biden said he was “confident” that Moscow had decided to invade Ukraine. When asked how he knew this, Biden said, “We have important intelligence capabilities.”
At the time, the government under Ukrainian government’s President Volodimia Zelenkie was unsure of Biden’s prognosis and argued that a full-scale invasion was unlikely.
Biden was right, Ukraine was wrong.
Since the outbreak of war, the United States has used its vast spy capabilities, in addition to billions of dollars of sophisticated weapons, to share intelligence information with Ukraine, helping Kiev plot a defensively and against the Russian army.
It stopped on Wednesday when US officials confirmed that President Donald Trump had ordered the suspension of intelligence news sharing with Kiev. The move comes two days after the US suspends military aid to Ukraine amid sour relations between Trump and Zelensky.
So how much did the US help Ukraine with intelligence during the war? How much will the absence of the US intelligence reporting agency hurt Ukraine? And can Europe step up and help Ukraine?
This is what we know so far.
what happened?
US authorities confirmed that Washington has suspended sharing intelligence news with Ukraine. This follows several US media outlets reporting Trump has suspended military aid to Kiev and cited unnamed US officials.
John Ratcliffe, director of the Central Intelligence Bureau (CIA), confirmed the intelligence pause in an interview with Fox Business Broadcasting on Wednesday.
US national security adviser Mike Waltz also confirmed the suspension to reporters on Wednesday the same day. “We’re taking a step back and pausing and reviewing all aspects of this relationship,” Waltz said. He added that he is “a good story” about negotiations with Ukraine.
US officials have indicated that if there is a diplomatic breakthrough between Trump and Zelensky, the suspension on military aid and information sharing could be lifted.
“I think we’ll see the movement in a very short order,” Waltz said.
Why did the US cut the sharing of intelligence news with Ukraine?
In a report from the White House, Al Jazeera’s Alan Fisher said that cutting intelligence sharing was “just a tool to bring Ukraine back to the table.”
Fisher explained: [the US] He also spoke about stopping military aid to Ukraine, allowing Ukrainians to reach war efforts. ”
“Obviously, only those threats worked. So when I told my national security adviser we could resume things in a short time, it seems to suggest that the impact on Ukraine is limited, to say the least.
How did you get here?
Trump’s military suspension, and the latest suspension of intelligence sharing, came after tensions between Trump and Zelenkey have risen over the past few weeks.
Trump has shifted US policy on Ukraine and opened a direct discussion with Moscow to end the war. In February, US and Russian officials met for consultations hosted by Saudi Arabia, excluded Ukraine and its European allies from the discussion.
Over the next few days, Trump and Zelensky found themselves caught up in an oral brawl. Trump described Zelensky as a “no-election dictator,” and raised doubts about his approval rating. Zelensky fought back by saying that Trump lived in a “space of disinformation.”
On February 28th, Zelensky met Trump, US Vice President J.D. Vance, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the White House’s oval office. Trump and Vance accused Zelensky of not fully grateful for Washington for the military aid they provide Kiev. A few days later, on Monday, Trump halted military aid.
On Tuesday, Zelensky’s tone was settled and Ukraine said it was ready to return to the negotiation table. “We really value how much America has done to help Ukraine maintain its sovereignty and independence,” he wrote in the X-Post.
How has the US supported Ukraine so far intelligently?
Even before the Russian-Ukraine war began in February 2022, the United States supported Ukraine with important intelligence.
The specific details and how important the US sharing of intelligence news to Ukraine was has never been made publicly public, but multiple reports, staff and leaks point to two key areas.
Intelligence is primarily a combination of satellite imagery and signals, allowing Ukrainian forces to prepare for a Russian strike. It also tracks the movements of the Russians and the location of the bases, allowing the Ukrainians to deploy missiles (including long-range projectiles) against them. This includes strikes within Russian territory using long-range weapons such as ATACM and horsepower sent from Ukraine’s western allies.
“The US can provide Ukraine with coordinates or satellite images of where the Russian logistics centre is, and then Ukraine can use that information to destroy them,” Marina Milon, postdoctoral researcher at King’s College London’s Defense Research Division, told Al Jazeera.
“That information is needed from a Ukrainian perspective to target hostile objectives such as ammunition depots and logistic hubs.”
But there’s more.
In February 2024, an investigation by the New York Times revealed that after the Ukrainian Command Center was destroyed several months after the full-scale Russian invasion, an underground bunker was constructed to replace it. In this bunker, Ukrainian soldiers track Russian spy satellites and listen to conversations among the Russian troops. The Base is almost fully funded and partially equipped by the CIA, The Times reported.
The report added that Ukraine has multiple CIA-promoted spy bases, including 12 secret locations along the Russian border.
The investigation revealed that around 2016 the CIA began training for an elite Ukrainian commando force called Unit 2245, which seized Russian drones and communications equipment. These devices are reverse engineered by the CIA to decode Moscow encryption. One of the officers trained in 2245 was Kirilo Budanov, who is now the Director of the Military Intelligence Bureau of Ukraine.
Does a pause of information affect Ukraine’s fighting capabilities?
I already have it.
Report from Ukraine, Al Jazeera’s Charles Stratford said he spoke with the Ukrainian commander in a unit close to the frontline.
“He said his troops and many people would correct the road along that 1,300km. [808 miles] The east and south frontlines of Ukraine relied on American intelligence research for about 90% of the intelligence report work being carried out,” Stratford said. “He said they didn’t get help today and in fact it appears that Americans have turned that system off.”
Ukraine uses US intelligence for a variety of purposes, Stratford proposed. For example, because of its patriot missile system, this is important for Kiev’s ability to defeat Russian ballistic missiles that appear.
Can Europe help fill Ukraine’s intelligence blind spots?
Partially.
European countries have spy satellites that can provide some images, but it is unclear whether they are tailored to providing the kind of intelligence Ukraine needs.
Ukraine also has two commercially acquired spy satellites manufactured by the Finnish company Iceye. One was purchased by a nonprofit organization, and the other was provided by the German government and German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall.
But even these are unlikely to be able to fill the gaps left by sharing US intelligence reports, experts say.
“Europe has no intelligence that Ukraine receives from the US,” Miron said, adding that the cut will have an immediate impact on the battlefield. The United States has a “monopoly on military satellites and intelligence,” she added.
In February 2022, Elon Musk’s SpaceX-owned Starlink was revitalized in Ukraine after an invasion destroyed its internet connection. Milon explained that the Ukrainian army also relies on “communication, tactical reconnaissance and the use of FPVs.” [first-person view] Drone.”
On February 20, US negotiators told Kiev that they would suspend Starlink if Ukraine fails to reach critical mineral trade, Reuters news agency reported citing an anonymous source who was briefed on the talks. Rare earth mineral trade allows the US to invest in Ukrainian resources.
Musk is a close ally of Trump.
Miron said that despite French satellite operator Eutelsat providing alternatives to certain defense applications, the Ukrainian military’s capabilities attributable to Starlink are also “hard to match.” Starlink has 7,000 low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites, while Eutelsat has around 630, supported by 35 high orbit satellites.
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