aS American Spooks may be willing to talk about Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky ending the war, but they are not ready to stop the battle. “For now, both leaders consider the risk of a long war to be less than the risk of a dissatisfied settlement,” concluded the annual threat assessment by 18 American intelligence agencies issued on March 25th.
It helps explain why President Donald Trump’s promise (as he had said before) to end the war between Russia and Ukraine is difficult. His officials say they achieved “magnificent” results. In fact, the deal falls in each round of shuttle diplomacy. Russia appears to intend to impose conditions at every stage as its forces shatter.
Make progress so far. On March 11, the United States and Ukraine proposed an immediate and unconditional 30-day ceasefire. On March 18th, Russia had to narrow it down, narrow it down, stop air attacks on energy infrastructure and transport in the Black Sea, and resolve the details. On March 25th, the US announced an agreement to “ensure safe navigation,” but quickly became suspicious. Russia argued that it would not be enacted until Russian state banks are reconnected to a rapid payment system. The EU said that it won’t happen until Russia withdraws from Ukraine (Swift is based in Belgium).
In any case, the Black Sea trade only mitigates small problems. Western sanctions have already ruled out Russian food and fertilizer exports. And Ukraine has already reopened its maritime trade corridors by fighting back against the Russian navy and sending cargo to friendly provincial territory. At best, if the Accord prevents attacks on the port, the facilities at Ukrainian port Mikolife could reopen and lower premiums could be made. Russia may benefit from simpler terms for export.
Ukrainian and European officials are worried that America is moving to ease sanctions against Russia without real concessions. A White House statement said: “We have pledged to restore access to the global market for the export of Russian agriculture and fertilizer, reduce maritime insurance costs, and help to enhance access to ports and payment systems for such transactions.
Washington’s Kremlin Haggers appears to have an advantage. The stick has been applied primarily to Ukraine, but for some time it was blocked from the flow of American weapons and intelligence. Russia is primarily served with carrots. Americans speak of recognizing the annexation of territory and denying membership or security guarantees of Ukrainian NATO. Officials have created options to lift sanctions.
In an obvious interview with Ukrainian American envoy, Steve Witkov, on March 21, he said he called for not only the end of the war, but also a new geopolitical agreement with Russia. It includes cooperation on Arctic oil and gas production, exports of liquefied natural gas, artificial intelligence and handling of Iran. “Who doesn’t want to see such a world?” he asked. He hurriedly laughing at European countries to arm Ukraine and strengthen himself, attempting to “become like Winston Churchill.” The fear that Russia would attack other parts of Europe was “idiot.”
As talks continue, Russia is trying to convince Trump to ignore Ukrainians and European concerns and turn to a magnificent bargain. Ukraine wants to prove that Russia is negotiating with malicious intentions, hoping that Trump may oppose the Kremlin. In an interview with NewsMax TV on March 25, Trump admitted Putin may be stalling, but he doesn’t seem to be upset. “It may be that they’re limping. I’ve done it over the years, you know.” But he was sure that both Russia and Ukraine “want to see it end.”
American officials want to win a ceasefire in Trump’s first 100-day inauguration. The danger is that the agreement quickly means abandoning Ukraine and avoiding the cave to Russia. As the American spies said, Putin has good reason to play for time, as “positive battlefield trends allow for strategic patience.” Zelensky fears that bad deals will “induce domestic rebound and future anxiety.” ■
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