Russia last week ousted Ukrainian troops from most of the territory it controlled in the Russian region of Kursk, raising doubts about whether the week-long US intelligence cutoff effectively helped Russia’s counterattack.
The US said it had restored intelligence news sharing and military aid to Ukraine on Tuesday night after Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire plan that was debated for nine and a half hours in Riyadh.
Russia’s efforts to recapture Kursk on March 6, the day after the White House cut off military and intelligence news aid to Ukraine.
According to Ukrainian general staff, Russian forces attacked 32 times in Kursk.
According to Russian military reporters, Russia prioritized its front, moving some of the best drone operators there and deploying electronic warfares to prevent the Ukrainian drone counterattack.
The effort became clear on Friday, March 7, when Russian forces first attacked Smie’s Ukrainian border area for the first time since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022, to surround and cut off supply lines at Kursk.
On Saturday, Russian troops acquired several settlements north of Sudasukh, Kursk’s main Ukrainian base, and began firing at Suda itself. One Russian operation involved in infiltrating industrial areas by craving soldiers within gas pipelines.
The UK’s Daily Telegraph newspaper reported that Ukraine is considering withdrawing to avoid a siege, but Ukrainian commander Oleksandr Silsky said on Monday that “there is no threat to siege of Ukrainian units in the Kursk region.”
However, he sent drones and electronic warfare reinforcements.
By Tuesday, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that it had recaptured 100 square kilometers (40 square miles) in Kursk, which includes 12 settlements.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told media on Wednesday that Suda had been released.
“Data from our military shows that our military is progressing normally in the Kursk region to free the controlled areas. [Ukrainian] Extremists,” he said.
Later on Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Kursk for the first time in months, and a day later, the Kremlin claimed that Moscow’s operation in Kursk was in its final stages.
Ukraine caught Russia from off guard in an anti-violence last August, leveraging a single division of 11,000 soldiers to pin an estimated 78,000 Russian soldiers, slowing down Russia’s progress in eastern Ukraine, embarrassing the embarrassing Putin, and calling for the help of 12,000 North Korean mercenaries last November.
The War Institute, a Washington-based think tank, rated the Russian army recaptured 655 square kilometers (250 square miles) by last month.
Ukraine launched a surprising attack in early January and February, showing the importance it combined its position and imposed on Kursk as an aggressive defense.
Ukrainian military analyst Petro Chernik expressed his view that “Putin gave us a firm order to drive our group out of it by May 9th. If this doesn’t happen, it would be a truly serious ideological defeat for him.”
A Ukrainian government source told Time magazine that the role of the US intelligence cutoff was important in Russia’s advancement, as Ukraine failed to detect Russian bomber and fighter takeoffs or set the most accurate weapon targeting coordinates.
Then-US President Joe Biden allowed Ukraine to use US-made ATACMS rockets to collide inside Russia last November.
Europe to rescue?
Europeans scrambled to find alternatives to the Ukrainian military for the US government’s intelligence reporting agency and the Starlink satellite system.
Four satellite operators from France, Spain, the UK and Luxembourg told the Financial Times on Friday that they were offering services to Starlink’s successor.
Commercial satellite imaging company Maxar Technologies said the European government was able to convey the image to Ukraine despite the US stopping it from doing so.
Europe also sought to bolster weapon delivery to prevent Ukraine from suffering set-offs, similar to those in early 2024, when US military aid was suspended for six months.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov met with eight Nordic and Baltic countries on Saturday, including Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania, to coordinate weapon delivery.
“We are waiting for important decisions that will help Ukraine strengthen its defensive capabilities,” he said.
Ukraine was in discussions with Poland and Lithuania to enhance joint production of weapons and ammunition.
Umerov has signed two major private sector contracts. One said it would be a clause with German Diehl defense and “increasing the supply of missiles and air defense systems by three,” and one said it would be British Andril for the unmanned troops of the Advanced Roving Ministry paid by Ukraine’s International Fund.
Germany, which provided 37 billion euros ($40 billion) of military and financial aid under Prime Minister Olaf Scholz, announced on March 6 that it would increase defence spending up to 1 trillion euros ($1.09 trillion) under the expected coalition between Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats of Skols. Polls suggested that three-quarters of Germans supported this.
Ukraine has also been an impressive expansion of its domestic defense industrial bases, and now supplies 40% of its own weapons.
Ukrainian Defense Ministry said it would triple the purchase of first-person view drones made in the country this year.
“The domestic defense industry’s capacity in 2025 is approximately 4.5 million FPV drones, and the Ministry of Defense plans to buy all of them,” said Gleb Kanevsky, the procurement director. These numbers did not include the long-range drones used to collide deep within Russia.
Deep attacks in Russia and Ukraine
Despite the US intelligence cutoff, these deep strikes continued last week.
Ukraine successfully hit Moscow and Diaghilev Air Force Base in Riazan on Tuesday, and Ukraine said a massive Ukrainian drone operation was successful. The state’s wire service RIA Novosti reported that a total of 337 drones were used, of which 91 were used in Moscow. Russian authorities reported three people had died and 18 injured.
Ukrainian general staff said it had hit the Riazan refinery on Sunday and produced jet fuel. The next night, staff said they attacked the Novokjbyshev refinery in the Samara area. Andriy Kovalenko, the head of the Centre for Countering Disinformation, said the plant is one of the 10 largest people in Russia.
Kovalenko also said that Ukrainian forces had attacked the NLMK metallurgical plants in Novolipetsk, Kursk. The wound steel was used in ships and submarines, combat vehicle hulls, missiles and aircraft, Kovalenko said.
Russia also raided Ukraine with one of the biggest drone packs of the war.
At least 11 people were killed when Russia launched a total strike on March 7th, using Iskander ballistic missiles, multiple-fire tornado rockets and Jeland loans in the town of Dubropyria.
The Dobropillya attack was part of a national shower of 67 missiles and 194 drones.
The French Mirage Jet knocked out the Russian KH-101 missile and took part in battle for the first time in the war.
Data compiled by ISW showed that the scale of Russian drone and missile combination attacks has increased significantly since US President Donald Trump took office as Russia tried to harness its position before the expected peace talks.
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