SEOUL, South Korea – After six hours of emergency martial law, hundreds of days of protest, violence at Seoul courts and President Yoon Sook-yeol’s final bluff each, South Korea is now hours away from choosing a new leader in hoping to restore stability to a volatile country.
On Tuesday (21:00-11:00 GMT), from 6am to 8pm, the Koreans will vote for one of five presidential candidates of the race, led primarily by opposition Democrat Lee Jae-myeon. He continues to see power party candidates for those governing Kim Moon Thor in polls.
The election, which includes 44.39 million eligible voters, is expected to replace Yun by either of these two top candidates. The former president, who was banished last week, attended a hearing in his fifth court, facing charges of rebellion and abuse after the failed martial law on December 3rd.
If convicted, Yoon could face a life sentence or even death sentence in prison.
Election participation remains resonant in every corner of society, and is predicted to be the highest ever in political turmoil caused by the short imposition of military control that sharply divides the country along political boundaries. There are people who still support Yoon and those who vehemently oppose his decision to martial law.
Democrat Lee is now a clear frontrunner, with the latest Gallup South Korea poll on May 28th coming to 49% as a victory favorite, compared to 36% of Kim’s in the Power Party.
Early votes, which ended Friday, reached 34.74%, the second highest voter turnout in the country’s history, with overseas votes from 118 countries reaching a record high of 79.5%.
Lee Jae Myung’s second chance
In the final presidential election in 2022, Yoon narrowly shut Lee out in the nearest presidential contest in South Korea’s history.
After a defeat in 2022, when crushed by a vote margin of just 0.73% points, Lee has another chance at the top office and redeems his political reputation.
About a month ago, the South Korean Supreme Court held that Lee had spread the falsehood during his 2022 presidential bid in violation of election law.
In addition to surviving a series of bribery charges during his tenure as Mayor Sungjum and Governor of Yangongi, which he claimed to be politically motivated, Lee survived a stabbing attack in the neck at a press conference in Busan last year.
Fortunately for Lee, the court agreed to postpone further trial hearings ongoing until after the election.
In the trajectory of this campaign, Lee placed a sniper on the rooftop, scanned the crowd for potential threats, and spoke slowly to his supporters from behind the prevention glass.
Lee also joined his campaign by his former enemy, conservative lawmakers.
Power Party candidate Kim was particularly hit hard when his Congressional colleague Kim Sang Wook escaped from the party in early May to join Lee’s Democrats.
According to voting data from South Korea’s leading media outlet Hankyore, only 55% of conservative voters who supported Yoon in the 2022 election said they would support Kim of the People’s Party this time.
Such changes represent the crisis facing mainstream Conservatives after Yun’s political fallout from the martial law program and removal from duties, but it also certifies the appeal against both Lee’s moderate and Conservative voters.
Future Presidents face “severe burdens”
“The events of martial law, attempts at riots and the events of the blast-each process have hit our democracy hard,” said Lim Wooung Taek, a professor of sociology at Kyeomyeon University and a former member of the Presidential Committee on Policy Planning.
“So the president will put a huge burden when considering a presidential seat,” Lim told Al Jazeera.
Youth unemployment, social inequality, and climate change have also become pressing issues that Yoon’s administration has not been able to tackle.
A recent survey found that non-regular workers in South Korea, including contract employees and part-time workers, accounted for 38% of all wage and pay workers last year.
Lee defends business-friendly policies, commits to focus on research and development and investment in artificial intelligence, and refrains from focusing on divisive social issues such as gender wars.
His attitude shifted considerably from the era of increasing political rank when he promoted leftist ideas such as universal basic income.
The events on the night of the Declaration of Martial Law on December 3 also helped solidify Lee’s image as a political freedom fighter. Former human rights lawyer Lee was livestreamed as the military surrounded the compound, expanding the parliamentary walls, where legislators voted and attacked to defeat Yun’s decision to mobilize the army.
Among Lee’s most central campaign pledges was his promise to bring those involved in Yun’s martial law scheme to trial and strengthen control over the future president’s ability to do the same. Lee also wants to see constitutional reforms that allow the president to serve two-year, four-year terms.
Lee’s closest challenger, Kim agreed to such a policy and kept her distance from Yoon, but says that the former president’s bluff each has gone too far.
Trump, tariffs, new directions for South Korea
The election will also be unfolding as President Donald Trump proposed a series of tariffs on major South Korean exports, including steel, semiconductors and automobiles.
In the face of these threats, Lee has committed to stimulating demand and growth, while Kim has committed to relaxing business regulations. Kim also highlighted plans to hold an immediate summit meeting with Trump to discuss tariffs.
Meanwhile, Lee has pledged a more practical foreign policy agenda that prioritizes “national interests” not only to maintain ties with the US administration, but also to fill closer ties with neighboring China and Russia.
In North Korea, Lee has been determined to ease tensions that have risen to unprecedented heights in recent years, but Kim has pledged to increase the military capabilities of the country against Pyongyang and hopes for stronger security support from the United States.
Lee has also pledged to move the National Assembly and the Presidential Office, designated as the country’s new administrative capital, from Seoul to Sejong City.
Another major issue that K-Myeong University LIM hopes future leaders will focus more on is the climate situation.
“Our country is considered a climate villain. If we don’t address the immediate impact of not maintaining limits on the amount of dangerous output, we will face future restrictions on exports,” Lim said.
“The future of our country really depends on this one question: whether the next president is bringing out the issues like the previous administration, or whether we will face the public realm and face the major issues that are exacerbating our society?”
The results of Tuesday’s vote are expected to appear late Tuesday or early Wednesday morning.
In the 2022 election, Yoon declared the winner at 4:40am on Election Day.
As Lee is at the clear frontline in this election, the outcome could be revealed as early as Tuesday night.
However, this year’s increased surveillance at polling stations could be a factor that slows the early announcement of the country’s next president, as concerns have been raised about error counting.
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