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“THe had a great conversation with Erdogan a few days ago,” Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, told an interviewer on March 21. As he spoke, the biggest protest over the decade was likely referring to Mr Witkov’s future sales in Turkey, or to the state’s offer for mediation in Ukraine. Turkish leaders are reading the mood in the western capital, exploiting their status overseas and organizing home repression.
Student protesters have opposed police despite banning public gatherings for more than a week. More than 1,800 people are in custody, including at least 10 journalists. The score was injured. Every night, tens of thousands of young people cram squares outside Istanbul’s city hall. Almost every night, they bravely dare to tear gas, water cannons and rubber bullets. Imamoguru, the city’s mayor and de facto leader of the Turkish opposition, has been arrested on charges of corruption, which is considered fake. The anger shows no signs of calm.
On March 23, as Imamoguru was moved to the largest security prison on the city’s outskirts, the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) held a primary election to confirm him as a candidate in the upcoming presidential election scheduled for 2028. The party said 15m of Turks were involved.
Faced with the greatest challenge to his rule over the years, Erdogan has seized reports of officers injured in clashes with protesters and denies opposition that hinders violence. “Be careful,” he said on March 25th. “Our country will not succumb to the terror of the streets.” This is a familiar line. More than a decade ago, Turkish Strongman compared a wave of protests that began with a call from developers to save Istanbul Park, popular with a coup. Many protesters were indicted. Osman Kabbalah, a businessman and art patron whose government has been framed as their leader, was sentenced to life in prison in 2022.
Erdogan doesn’t need to fear pressure from his NATO allies. Turkey is a “good place” and its president is a “good leader,” Trump said on March 25th. European leaders who want Turkey to join a “coalition of will” to supply peacekeeping forces to Ukraine are smoking their mouths. The UK is silent. The fears of uncontrolled migration by Turkey have decided policies against Erdogan in the past, says Senem Aidin Duzgit of Savansi University in Istanbul. The fear of Russia plays the same role now.
The government eased the blow, but the Turkish economy was hit after its arrest. Authorities have recovered mild scales after three days of turmoil, where the stock market index plummeted 16% and the Turkish lira hit a record low hit against the dollar. It came at a huge cost. Stock market regulators ban short selling. To avoid currency conflicts, the central bank sold at least $26 billion ($97 billion) in foreign currency reserves and raised the lending rate overnight. Banks that have been replenishing their financial resources over the past few years can protect Lira in the short term, even if foreign portfolio investors are heading towards the door, says former vice-president Ibrahim Turhan.
However, the damage was done. Since 2023, the Turkish economic team has cleansed up some of the disruption caused by Erdogan’s previous policies, pursuing growth in both cases. The dramatic interest rate restored faith in the lira. Annual inflation, which was approaching a triple figure, fell to 39%, and central banks began to carefully lower fees. The crackdown was wrong with technocrats. “Many foreign investors have been bought out in a shift towards orthodox policy,” says Piotr Matys of Intouch Capital Markets, a consultancy firm in London and New York. “Their confidence has been shaking so badly.”
Erdogan hopes that the CHP can be placed by a court ruling that will allow the party to maintain control of Turkey’s biggest city. (If Imamoguru was arrested for terrorist accusations, the government would have replaced him with his own agent.) On March 26, CHP had the majority, and one of Imamoguru’s fellow members was elected as the proxy mayor at the Istanbul city council. The previous day, party leader Ozgar Ozel announced the end of the protest at city hall, but not before he called for a massive rallies over the weekend.
There is a feeling that the demon is coming out of a bottle on the streets of Istanbul. “The more we keep quiet, the more they attack us. Enough is enough,” says Siran, a young woman wearing a surgical mask to protect herself from tear gas and CCTV cameras. Housewife Meral joined in the protest with her daughter, a university student. “This is not about Imamoguru or CHP,” she says. “This is because we are deprived of our right to vote and our right to be elected.”
Erdogan’s rules, now in his 23rd year, are barely in danger. That’s what Türkiye’s ruined democracy is. On the eve of Imamoguru’s arrest, you can still argue that the government can be held liable by voters, if not traditional courts or media. With Erdogan’s main enemy crammed into prisons, the government took an irreversible step towards becoming a government. ■
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