President Donald Trump has posted more than 200 posts on oil prices since joining Twitter in 2009, and his mischief offers insight into the prices he prefers over crude. Goldman Sachs mined all Trump’s posts on Twitter, X, and on his social media platform, Truth Social. The banks have found that Trump is seeking to cut oil prices by 213 times and increase prices by 15 times. The president has posted the least about crude oil prices when US crude is trading between $40 and $50 per barrel, suggesting that this is his preferred price range, an analyst led by Goldman’s head of oil research, told clients on Tuesday. According to Goldman analysts, Trump tends to seek lower prices when West Texas intermediates are trading above $50 per barrel. He generally wants a higher price when US crude hits rock bottoms of less than $30 per barrel. Trump’s trade adviser Peter Navarro publicly said the president’s “drills, babies, drills” agenda aims to push oil down to $50 a barrel to help fight inflation. Goldman also found that the president tends to post less sanctions when the WTI is between $60 and $70. Banks also observed that Trump generally posts more about oil prices as US elections approach. “President Trump’s speculated preference for relatively low oil prices supports our view that oil prices are likely to fall between 2025 and 2026,” Struyven told clients. Goldman now predicts US crude oil will average $56 per barrel this year and $52 per barrel this year. The president’s priority prices based on his social media posts will hurt the US shale industry. According to Goldman, Shale producers simply need a price of at least $51 for break-even. According to investment banks, growth in US supply tends to slow down as U.S. crude oil falls to $60 and approaches producer break-even prices. US crude oil closed on May 5 at a four-year low of $57.13, with Trump’s tariffs struggling with demand, causing fear of a recession as OPEC+ rapidly increased supply to the market. Diamondback Energy CEO Travis Stice warned last week that US shale production will peak and begin to decline due to low oil prices. Cher producers suffered from criticism of Trump’s tariffs and energy policy in an anonymous response to a March survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The US benchmark was trading above $63 per barrel on Wednesday. Prices have bounced somewhat this week after the US and China agreed to significantly cut tariffs and raised hopes of economic growth rebounding. Goldman expects US gross supply in the lower 48 states to be gross this year and the next gross supply.
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