Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam – Kieu Quoc Thanh, CEO of Cashew Export Business SVC Group, says everyone in his industry has been “crazy” for the past two weeks.
Since President Donald Trump announced his ever since “mutual” tariffs on April 2, Tan has witnessed massive disruptions among Vietnamese exporters.
Many businesses relying on the US market check online for the latest tariff updates every hour.
Since Trump announced a 90-day suspension on Vietnam’s 46% tariffs and obligations in dozens of other countries, the US has imposed a baseline 10% collection on imports from all countries, including Vietnam.
But he says U.S. and customs officials’ customers are unsure how much they tax their products.
“No one knows what’s going on,” Tan told Al Jazeera at the Ho Chi Minh city office last week.
While companies like Thanh navigate the turmoil, Hanoi and Washington are discussing trade deals after agreeing to begin negotiations on April 10th.
For Vietnam, one of the world’s most exported economies, interests can be almost high.
The US is Southeast Asia’s largest export market, accounting for 30% of GDP last year, so that’s what it’s transported.
Trump’s tariff suspension led to hope in Vietnam, but the country is in Tenter Hook about what will happen next, said Tyler Mandang Ngguen, chief market strategist at equity firm Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corporation.
“We are experiencing a period of extreme uncertainty not only for financial markets but also for businesses,” Nguyen told Al Jazeera.
“It’s like a reality show,” Nguyen added. “Everything changes every day.”
Trump’s trade salvo contrasts sharply with decades of warming relations between Washington and Hanoi, culminating in former enemies who upgraded their relationship with the 2023 “comprehensive strategic partnership.”
For Eddie Thai, a Vietnamese American who co-founded Ho Chi Minh City-based venture capital firm Ascend Vietnam Ventures, it’s disappointing to see relations tense, especially before the 50th anniversary of the end of the Vietnam War on April 30th.
“I don’t think we were thrown into it 50 years ago, I wouldn’t say it far, but it’s burning the many goodwills that many people on both sides of the ocean have been trying to build since the ’90s.”
With the US and Vietnam looking to trade deals, Hanoi’s biggest import source and its second largest export destination China are significantly pushing for negotiations.
On Monday, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Hanoi as part of a five-day tour of Southeast Asia.
Upon his arrival, Xi Chiang was greeted at the airport by Vietnamese President Luong Quang, and later received a 21-gun salute at the Presidential Palace in Hanoi.
In response to the warm acceptance of Chinese leaders, Trump suggested that the country would use their consultations for a plan against the United States.
“It’s a lovely meeting, it’s like you’re trying to think, ‘How do you mess up the United States?’,” Trump told reporters at the White House.
According to Chinese province news outlet Xinhua, Xi urged Vietnam to resist “unilateral bullying” and said “China’s huge market is always open to Vietnam.”
During XI’s visit, the countries signed 45 agreements, Chinese and Vietnamese media reported without providing details of the transaction.
Nguyen, a strategist at Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corporation, said Vietnam has become the “middle diplomat man” as the US and China slap each other’s goods over 100% in tariffs.
“[Hanoi] “We’re always trying to be neutral in every situation,” Nguyen said.
US trade deficit
Trump’s tariffs also raised the rage of foreign companies based in Vietnam.
It would be an impossible task for Vietnam to erase its trade deficit with the US – considering the differences between the two economies, the third-highest at $123.5 billion in 2024, Bruno Jaspert said he is the general director of Deep C Industrial Zone in Haiphong, North Porttown.
“In reality, countries like Vietnam do not have leverage over the provinces,” Jaspert, who also heads Eurochum in Vietnam, told Al Jazeera.
“Their stupid formulas can never be balanced as it takes decades before Vietnam can be fully afforded,” Jaspert said of the controversial calculations the Trump administration used to come up with its “mutual” tariff rates.
Hanoi has put a considerable effort into joining the good bounty of the Trump administration in the face of the threat of a major economic blow.
The government has pledged to buy more Boeing aircraft and liquefied natural gas, and has launched discussions on the purchase of a C-130 freight plane from Lockheed Martin.
Last month, authorities agreed to allow Elon Musk’s Starlink Satellite Internet Service to operate domestically on a court basis.
Vietnam has also signed a deal with the Trump organization.
Shortly before Trump’s reelection, his holding company agreed to invest $1.5 billion in the golf course and hotel projects of the Communist leader in Lam’s hometown of Hang Yen.
“I believe Hanoi’s leadership has done a lot to ensure a more generous approach,” Nguyen Khac Giang, visiting fellow at the Ishaf Ishak Institute in Singapore, told Al Jazeera.
Lamb was one of the first foreign leaders to call Trump after the April 2nd tariff announcement, and sent a delegation to Washington on April 10th to negotiate with his administration.
In his efforts to soften Trump, Lamb said he was willing to cut tariffs on US goods to zero.
“There is no alternative option for Vietnam other than to settle with the US to ensure access to the US market,” Jiang said. “Vietnamese people must do what they can to maintain that access.”
Despite Vietnam’s risks, some observers are also seeing the country’s opportunity in Trump’s trade war.
In the short term, businesses are increasing production to deliver goods to the US over the next three months, but 10% tariffs are still in place.
“A considerable number of people are planning on shipping a lot, and 10% is still viable,” Jaspaert said. “If Trump wants to stand up to his promise, tariffs will rise again… We don’t think we’re out of the woods yet.”
In the long run, Vietnam could once again become a beneficiary of increased volatility between Washington and Beijing under Trump.
During Trump’s first term, Southeast Asian countries benefited from leaving factories from China as they sought businesses to reduce their exposure to geopolitical risks and trade barriers.
“The real fight here is the US against China embarrassing,” Craig Martin, chairman of Dynamy Capital, a private equity firm based in Ho Chi Minh City, told Al Jazeera.
“You have this uncertainty, this very intense trade war is eye-catching level of tariffs and [between Washington and Beijing]. “In fact, we were able to see the silver lining, people who want to do more in Vietnam,” added Martin.
Vietnam was also under US scrutiny to ship goods from China to the US with minimal manufacturing done in Vietnam.
Such scrutiny is likely to encourage Vietnam to invest in more value-added manufacturing industries, said market strategist Nguyen.
“I think there’s a mechanism that both governments have to agree to control it to control it. “I think that’s actually a good thing for Vietnam in the medium to long term.”
Last week, Reuters news agency reported that Hanoi had offered to crack down on Chinese goods shipped to the US via its territory and offered to strengthen control over sensitive exports to China.
The report comes after White House trade adviser Peter Navarro raised concerns that Chinese goods were being sent to the US under the label “Made Vietnam” to exploit lower import taxes.
The US-China tension could be a “great opportunity” for Europe to increase trade with Vietnam and Hanoi to diversify trade more broadly, Jaspaert said.
“I think Vietnam will also win the tariff war, as it has won every war it has been going on,” Jaspaert said.
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