US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement on most trading partners, including some in Africa, is likely to affect businesses and people on the continent, and force more producers to trade with China, experts warn.
Trump’s “liberation day” declaration plunged the market into chaos on Wednesday. The United States has been taking the strongest approach to protectionist policies since the 1930s, undermining the global trading system that the United States has supported building and strengthening.
Tariffs including baselines including additional tariffs in “worst criminals” countries like Nigeria and South Africa, including a universal 10% obligation, could also negate decades-long public trade agreements where African manufacturers export US tax-free goods and have been praised for creating thousands of jobs.
The African Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA) framework, established in 2000, helped to expand exports of continental textiles, iron, agricultural products, among others to the United States.
Aga had a second update this year set for the year, but could be put at risk by Trump’s trade war.
What should we know here about how African countries have been hits and what possible effects are:
Which African countries are attacked and how much?
Africa’s largest economy, Nigeria (14%) and South Africa (31%), were among those on Trump’s “mutual” tariff list. So the president says, “We’re treating us badly.”
According to Washington, it included high tariffs on US goods and introducing other barriers to US trade. These duties will come into effect on April 9th, and universal duties will begin on April 5th.
The southern African country was particularly badly hit. Lesotho, a small South African country that Trump claimed “no one ever heard of” last month, suffered the highest tariff rate at 50%. The world’s second-highest HIV burden is still upset by the shock of Trump’s drastic aid cut that has disrupted HIV reaction efforts across the region.
Other southern African countries were: Madagascar (47%). Mauritius (40%); Botswana (37%); Angola (32%).
South Africa was also affected by another 25% tariff on all foreign-made cars that came into effect this week. South Africa exports $2 billion worth of vehicles and parts to the US under the Agoa framework, according to the country’s Ministry of Trade and Industry and Competition.
The tariffs above 10% imposed on other African countries are as follows:
Algeria – Cameroon 30% – 12% Chad – 13% Democratic Republic of the Congo – 11% Equatorial Guinea – 13% Equatorial Coast – 21% Libya – Malawi 31% – Malawi – 18% Mozambique – Namibia 16% – Tunisia 21% – Zambia 28% – 17% Zimbabwe – 18%
What did the African government say?
The South African government has been involved in a series of spats with Washington in recent weeks, but has been the first to respond to tariff hikes.
In a statement Thursday, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s office called the country’s tariffs “punitive” and added that it “will serve as a barrier to trade and sharing prosperity.” The government has also pledged to seek relief with Washington.
The presidency notes that he has concerns about newly imposed tariffs on South Africa’s exports to the United States (US). https://t.co/y3ygjd7ecp
– President (@presidencyza) April 3, 2025
“Taxes affirm the urgency to negotiate new bilateral and mutually beneficial trade agreements with the United States as an essential step to ensuring long-term trade certainty,” the statement read.
According to the US government, South Africa charges 60% tariffs on US goods, while Lesotho charges 99%. Madagascar, claimed by the White House, collects 93% tariffs on US goods, and Mauritius, 80%.
Born in Trump and his close ally, South Africa, Elon Musk, has criticised the land reform policy that South Africa claims discriminates against the country’s white minority population. Trump also provided citizenship to white South Africans. During his announcement Wednesday, Trump said “bad things are happening there.”
How will customs duties affect AGOA?
Experts say tariffs have the biggest impact on the African economy, which is dependent on US trade, effectively overriding Asian privileges. Currently, 32 African countries are eligible for the program. Countries may be off the list, such as Niger and Gabon, which lost benefits after the military coup.
The ADOA, which expired in September, granted tax-free access to more than 1,800 products from eligible sub-Saharan African countries, forming the backbone of US African trade policy for 25 years. It was updated for 10 years in 2015. Mauritius chocolate and basket weave ingredients, Mali instruments and Mozambique nuts are one of the products that have been delivered to US buyers through Agoa.
It is still officially in operation, but it is unclear whether the Trump administration will update it again. Certainly, Trump’s tariff announcements “set it along the path of death,” Cheta Nwanze, the chief partner at SBM Intelligence, a Lagos-based risk analysis firm, told Al Jazeera.
“African countries are not known for creating a solid geopolitical stance, so many of them try to continue Agoa, meaning they’ll go into zombie mode rather than dying,” he said.
The program has been welcomed by economists for many years to open the US market to African manufacturers, but critics say its strict production and packaging requirements often support a larger economy. Sales of Agoa in Kenya, primarily textiles and apparel, went from $55 million in 2001 to $603 million in 2022.
Which countries will be most affected?
South Africa and Nigeria are the US’s top trading partners on the continent. South Africa mainly exports precious stones, iron products and cars (mainly from BMW in South Africa) to the United States. Nigeria exports crude oil and other petroleum products. In return, the US exports crude oil, electrical products and aircraft to South Africa, and vehicles and machinery primarily to Nigeria.
Ghana (cocoa and crude oil), Ethiopia (coffee) and Kenya (textiles and tea) also record large volumes of trade with the US every year under Agoa. Though not listed as “criminals”, these countries face universal tariffs of 10%.
Analysts say that tariffs are heavy but could have a major negative impact on African manufacturers, leading to increased cost of living and job losses that affect the general public.
“Increasing export costs can reduce competitiveness, reduce revenue and destabilize the economy,” SBM Intelligence’s Nwanze told Al Jazeera.
Sectors such as agriculture and mineral extraction businesses are likely to be particularly vulnerable, he added, as most African manufacturers sell living things to the United States rather than finished products.
Nigeria is in the midst of a cost-of-living crisis that has led to high levels of hunger and poverty. Meanwhile, South Africa has already recorded some of the highest levels of unemployment in the world, with an estimated six out of ten people working. Experts there previously estimated that a 25% blanket tariff would be a “worst scenario.”
Speaking to South African Publications IOL before Trump’s announcement, Casey Sprake, an economist at South African investment firm Anchor Capital, said a 25% scenario could reduce the country’s economic growth by 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points. The country reached 31%.
How do African countries respond?
In the short term, countries like South Africa seem to want to reason with Trump on more favorable terms.
In a statement earlier this week, Trade Minister Parks Tau said the country is urgently calling for a meeting with Washington. Tau said South African automobile exports account for just 0.99% of total US auto imports and 0.27% of auto parts.
In general, African countries are likely to rely on alternative trading partners such as China to avoid US tariffs, Nwanze added. For nearly 20 years already, China has overtaken the US as Africa’s top trading partner, representing one of the continent’s largest bilateral lenders.
China imports major commodities such as crude oil, iron ore and copper, and is also increasingly focusing on agricultural products. Meanwhile, the country exports finished products such as electronic devices to the continent.
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