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Home » The Mayan civilization had 16 million people at its peak, a new study found twice as many populations as modern New York.
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The Mayan civilization had 16 million people at its peak, a new study found twice as many populations as modern New York.

userBy userAugust 7, 2025No Comments4 Mins Read
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The Mayan population at the peak of a civilization 1,400 years ago may have been much larger than previously thought, new research reveals. The study also suggests that Mayan settlements at the time were much more complex and interconnected than previous studies suggested.

A 2018 survey found 11 million Maya between AD 600 and 900, known as the Late Classic Era. However, a new study published online on July 7th in the Journal of Archaeological Science: Reports has revised some of the authors of the 2018 study to 16 million people.

In both studies, Maya population size was estimated using LIDAR (photo detection and range) data. This is obtained on aircraft carrying machines that fire laser pulses into the ground and create 3D maps of the area. The ruins of the buildings on these maps can provide clues regarding population density. This allows researchers to extrapolate and come up with the total population number.

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“We had expected a slight increase in population estimates from the 2018 LIDAR analysis, but it was truly surprising to see a 45% jump,” said Francisco Estrada Berry, research professor at Tulane University in Louisiana and the lead author of the new study, in a statement. “This new data confirms how dense and socially organized the Mayan lowlands are.”

The Mayan lowlands are stripes of forested areas that include parts of modern Guatemala, Belize and Mexico. Specifically, the researchers created 36,700 square miles (95,000 square kilometers) of land in the Peten Division of Guatemala, western Belize, and Campeci and Quintana Lu, Mexico.

The Mayan civilization peaked between 250 and 900 AD, during which many cities flourished in Mesoamerica. Researchers have long thought that, with the exception of these cities, civilization was confined to scattered settlements with vast rainforest farmland in the region.

Related: The genome of the ancient Mayan people reveals the collapse of population and civilization 1,200 years ago

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However, new research shows that Maya settlements are much more complex and interconnected than previously thought.

“We are confident that these rider-based findings give us the clearest picture ever of the patterns of ancient Mayan settlements,” Estrada Beli said. “There is harsh evidence that Mayan society is currently highly structured both in urban and rural areas, with much more advanced resources and social organizations than previously understood.”

Researchers discovered the same construction patterns in urban and rural areas, with central public squares being controlled by elites and living areas and agricultural fields being distributed around these squares. Almost every building revealed in Lidar is within three miles (5 km) of the Plaza, suggesting that rural people, who were generally not elite, have access to most aspects of civic and religious life.

Ancient Mayan locations are marked on maps of the Mayan lowlands in southern Mexico, western Belize and northern Guatemala.

Map of the survey area of Maya Roland. The polygons and lines indicate the location of the Lidar data sample. The dashed line distinguishes between the northern and southern regions mentioned in the study. (Image credit: Estreda-Belli etal. 2025. Redistributed under Creative Commons License CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

The findings challenge the longstanding assumption that rural Mayan settlements are isolated from cities and thus detached from administrative and ritual centres. “Rural communities cannot be considered isolated, dismantled or independent,” the researchers wrote in their study.

The results also show that Northern Mayan lowlands are more urbanized and densely populated than previously recognized, explaining the uplift of the estimated population size.

“The lowlands in the northern Mayans were far from rural areas,” the researchers wrote. “Relative percentage of urban-rural density zones […] It is very similar between the southern and northern regions, challenging previous assessments. ”

Still, the Northern Mayan lowlands have a wide range of agricultural infrastructure, likely run by elites who manage food production and distribution, researchers write.

The team concluded that new population estimates raised new questions between 800 and 1000 AD, as large populations could have exacerbated political turmoil and environmental issues.

Today, many Mayans live in Mesoamerica, including around 8 million people in the southern Mesoamerican and Central America, according to the Center for Mesoamerican Studies at the University of California, Santa Barbara.


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