The electrification of transportation can make a significant contribution to reducing carbon emissions, which could increase global temperatures.
However, rising temperatures accelerate the deterioration of EV batteries, so for those considering purchasing an EV, this could be a make-or-break factor.
But in a new study led by the University of Michigan, researchers showed that EV batteries have improved significantly over the past few years. Now, those benefits will more than offset the expected thermal degradation on a warming planet.
“Thanks to technological advances, consumers should have more confidence in EV batteries, even in a warmer future,” said Haochi Wu, lead author of the study.
Improvements found in new EV batteries
The researchers’ study combined EV simulations with models of battery aging and climate change to compare the durability of batteries manufactured from 2010 to 2018 to the durability of batteries manufactured from 2019 to 2023.
In a scenario where the Earth warms by 2°C, the lifespan of older batteries will decrease by an average of 8% and up to 30%. For new batteries, the average decrease in life is only 3%, and at most only 10%.
Hottest cities likely to gain the most
Researchers examined EV battery life in 300 cities around the world under various warming scenarios and found that the improvements persisted across the globe. The warmest cities, such as those closest to the equator, will actually see the greatest benefits.
The team’s framework combined climate prediction with experimentally calibrated models of battery degradation and simulations of EV driving behavior to create high-fidelity battery profiles on fine time scales.
Geographical disparities are becoming apparent
A wide range of battery technologies are available in regions such as Europe and the United States. However, vehicle fleets vary widely in cities in India and sub-Saharan Africa, for example.
The effects of warming will also be exacerbated and felt more acutely in these regions, highlighting another dimension of how climate change will exacerbate inequality.
Roadmap to resilience
The team’s related project was inspired by a similar question about how global warming will affect the performance of rooftop solar cells.
In particular, we investigated how climate change could expose solar panels to high temperature risks and extreme heat risks. These risks are technical thresholds defined by the International Electrochemical Commission (IEC).
These high-temperature risks can accelerate the aging of traditional solar panels, making them less reliable and requiring replacement sooner than expected.
We found that current IEC standards underestimate these risks for more than half of existing and future rooftop solar installed capacity. Again, these risks will be most severe in areas where warming will be greatest, often in low- and middle-income areas.
It does not in itself solve the problem of inequity, but it does mean that groups looking for answers can focus on how the technology is deployed, rather than whether it exists.
“We know that more vulnerable regions will be more adversely affected by climate change, but this can be mitigated with improved technology,” Wu concluded. “That’s good news.”
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