Updated February 3rd at 11:00 AM ET: Monster sunspot region 4366 is currently facing Earth and shows no signs of weakening. It is the most active sunspot in the current solar cycle (period 25). NOAA predicts that a massive CME shot toward Earth is likely to occur this week. A minor (G1) geomagnetic storm is predicted to begin on Thursday (February 5), with the potential for aurora borealis to occur at lower latitudes than usual. Please stay tuned for further information.
A monster sunspot took aim at Earth after firing dozens of powerful flares on Sunday and Monday (February 1-2), including the most violent solar explosion in years.
According to a warning from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), geomagnetic activity will increase on Thursday (February 5), potentially producing more vivid auroras at lower latitudes than usual. However, it is still too early to be sure.
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The sunspot, called Region 4366, suddenly appeared a few days earlier and quickly grew to about half the size of the infamous Carrington event sunspot, which in September 1859 produced the flare that caused the most destructive geomagnetic storm in recorded history. This rapid growth has made sunspot 4366 highly unstable. In the 24-hour period from Sunday to Monday, more than 20 solar flares occurred in the region, including at least 23 M-class flares and four X-class flares, among the most powerful solar flares, NASA said.
The intense activity peaked around 6:57 p.m. ET on Sunday, when the sunspot triggered a powerful solar flare of X8.1, according to SWPC. This was the single most powerful solar flare since October 2024, when the Sun began its X9.0 outburst.
According to Spaceweather.com, the recent X-class flare quickly caused a partial radio blackout in the South Pacific Ocean and shot a slow-moving plasma blast called a coronal mass ejection (CME) in Earth’s direction. SWPC predicts that this CME will just miss Earth as it passes by on February 5th, but could receive a faint hit.
If a CME were to clip Earth, charged solar particles would race toward Earth’s magnetic poles, creating bright auroras.
The sun “wakes up”
Sunspots are vast, dark regions of magnetic instability that form in the Sun’s lower atmosphere. If the magnetic field lines near these regions become too entangled, they can violently snap back into place, causing solar flares and CMEs.
Sunspot activity peaks every 11 years, when the sun’s magnetic poles switch places during a period called solar maximum. The frequency and intensity of solar flares and CMEs also peak during this tumultuous period.
In 2024, NASA confirmed that solar maximum is well underway and that severe space weather could remain high until 2026. The result could be extremely rare and widespread auroral events, such as those observed in May 2024 when a monster CME pushed the aurora borealis all the way to South Florida. A recent study found that the sunspot that caused that storm remained on the sun for more than three months, causing nearly 1,000 solar flares during its lifetime.
Severe solar radiation storms can also have negative effects such as radio interference, GPS disruption, and damage to satellites and spacecraft.
The most powerful solar flare in 2025 was an X5.1 class eruption recorded in November. Sunspot 4366 has already broken records, but it remains to be seen whether it will persist to break its own records.
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