Pakistan said it had hit multiple Indian military bases early on Saturday, May 10 after claiming that India had marked a sharp escalation of tensions already rising after claiming that it had launched missiles at three Pakistani bases.
Mostly in the contested areas of Kashmir, longtime hostilities erupted into new battles after seeing 25 tourists and local guides killed in the armed group attacks after the fatal attack on Pahargam on April 22. India blamed Pakistan for its attack. Islamabad has denied any role.
Since then, the state has engaged in a series of tat moves that have begun in a diplomatic phase but have quickly turned into a conflict in the air forces.
As both sides appear to be escalating artillery and missile attacks and heading down the path to full-scale battle, the unprecedented reality looks at the world as well as 1.6 billion people in India and Pakistan.
“It’s stupid for either side to launch a nuclear attack on another person. It’s likely that nuclear weapons will be used, but that doesn’t mean it’s impossible,” Dan Smith, director of the Stockholm Institute of International Peace, told Al Jazeera.
So how did you get here? What are the nuclear weapons in India and Pakistan? And, according to them, will they use nuclear weapons?
How has tensions been swirling since April 22nd?
India has long been denounced the Front of Resistance (TRF). This was an armed group that initially claimed credibility in the Pahargam attack, and later distanced themselves from the killings. This distances itself from the killing of being a representative of a Pakistan-based armed group that repeatedly targeted India, including Mumbai in 2008 leaving more than 160 people.
New Delhi blamed Islamabad for the attack on Pahargam. Pakistan has denied any role.
India withdrew from the bilateral agreement on water sharing, and both sides reduced their diplomatic missions and expel each other’s citizens. Pakistan also threatened to leave other bilateral agreements. This includes the 1972 Shimura Agreement, which bound neighbors to the ceasefire line in conflict Kashmir, known as the conflict Kashmir (loc).
However, on May 7, India launched a wave of missile attacks on Pakistan and Pakistan-controlled Kashmir sites. It claimed it was a hit with “terrorist infrastructure,” but Pakistan says at least 31 civilians have been killed, including two children.
On May 8, India launched its drone into Pakistan’s airspace, reaching the country’s major cities. India claimed it was retaliation and Pakistan launched missiles and drones. Indian cities and Indian-controlled Kashmir cities reported explosions that New Delhi claimed were the result of an attempted attack on Pakistan, which was hampered.
Pakistan refused to send missiles and drones to India on May 8 and May 9, but that changed early on May 10 when Pakistan first claimed that India had targeted three bases with missiles. Shortly afterwards, Pakistan claimed it had attacked at least seven Indian bases. India has yet to respond to Pakistan’s claim that Indian bases were attacked or to Islamabad’s allegations that New Delhi launched missiles at military facilities.
How many nuclear warheads do India and Pakistan have?
India conducted nuclear tests in May 1974 before subsequent testing in May 1998, and later declared it a nuclear weapons state. Within a few days, Pakistan began a series of six nuclear tests, officially becoming a nuclear weapons state.
Since then, each side has been competing to build a multi-billion dollar-cost project, Arm and nuclear stockpile, larger than the other.
India is currently estimated to have more than 180 nuclear warheads. According to the Center for Strategic and International Research (CSIS), it is developing long-range and mobile land missiles that can deliver them, and is working with Russia to build ships and submarine missiles.
Pakistan’s Arsenal, meanwhile, is made up of over 170 warheads. The country enjoys technical support from regional allies in China, whose stockpiles include mainly mobile short-range and medium-range ballistic missiles, with enough scope to collide right inside India.
What is India’s nuclear policy?
India’s interest in nuclear power was first sparked and expanded under the first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru. However, in recent decades, the country has solidified its nuclear status and has halted its neighbours, China and Pakistan over territorial disputes.
New Delhi’s first and only nuclear doctrine was published in 2003 and has not been officially revised. The architect of that doctrine, the late strategy analyst K Subrahmanyam, was the father of India’s current Foreign Minister S Jaishankar.
Only the Prime Minister as head of the political council of the nuclear commander’s authority can approve a nuclear strike. The Indian nuclear doctrine is built around four principles.
First No Use (NFU): This principle means that India was not the first to launch a nuclear attack on its enemies. Nuclear weapons will only retaliate if they are first attacked in a nuclear attack. Indian doctrine states that retaliation can be launched for attacks made on Indian soils, or if nuclear weapons are used against forces on foreign territory. India also promises not to use nuclear weapons against nuclear-free states. Reliable Minimum Deterrence: India’s nuclear stance focuses on deterrence. In other words, its nuclear weapons are primarily intended to discourage other countries from launching nuclear attacks on the nation. India claims that nuclear weapons are insurance against such attacks. This is one reason why New Delhi is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). This is because all countries claim to disarm uniformly before doing the same thing. Massive Retribution: India’s retaliation against the first stripes from the invaders is calculated to cause destruction and damage such that the enemy’s military capabilities would disappear. Biological or Chemical Weapon Exception: As an exception to the NFU, India, according to its doctrine, uses nuclear weapons against any state that targets foreign countries or their troops with biological or chemical weapons.
What is Pakistan’s nuclear policy?
Strategic Ambiguity: Pakistan has never officially issued a comprehensive policy statement on the use of nuclear weapons, giving it the flexibility to deploy nuclear weapons at every stage of the conflict, as it has threatened in the past. Experts widely believe from the start that Islamabad’s untransparency is strategic and intended to act not only as a nuclear power plant in India, but as a deterrent to India’s superior traditional military power. Four Triggers: But in 2001, he was considered a vital strategist involved in Pakistan’s nuclear policy, and laid out four broad “red lines” or triggers that could lead to the deployment of nuclear weapons, deemed adjutant Khalid Ahmed Kidwai and advisor to the nuclear command body. they are:
Spatial Thresholds – Losses of most Pakistan’s territory could guarantee a response. This also forms the root of conflict with India.
Military Threshold – can be triggered by the destruction or targeting of many air or army.
Economic Threshold – Actions by attackers who may suffocate the Pakistan economy.
Political Threshold – Actions that lead to political instability or large-scale internal incongruence.
However, Pakistan never spelled out how much the loss of military territory would be to cause these triggers.
Has India’s nuclear stance changed?
Although the official Indian doctrine remains the same, Indian politicians have hinted in recent years that a more ambiguous attitude about initial use policies may be ongoing, perhaps in line with Pakistan’s stance.
In 2016, then India’s defence minister, Manohar Parikar, questioned whether India needed to be binding on the NFU. In 2019, current Defense Minister Rajnassin said India had previously adhered to the NFU policies, but the changing situation could have an impact.
“What happens in the future depends on the situation,” Singh said.
India that employs this strategy may be viewed as proportional, but some experts point out that strategic ambiguity is a double-edged sword.
“A lack of knowledge about enemy red lines can lead to lines being accidentally crossed, but it can also help the country to restrain it from participating in actions that could cause a nuclear reaction.”
Has Pakistan’s nuclear stance changed?
Pakistan has moved from a vague policy of not writing about doctrine in recent years to a more vocal “No NFU” policy.
In May 2024, Kidwai, an advisor to the nuclear command body, said at the seminar that Islamabad “has no initial use policy.”
Importantly, Pakistan has been developing so-called tactical nuclear weapons since 2011. TNW is a short-range nuclear weapon designed for more strikes and is intended to be used on the battlefield against opposing forces without causing widespread destruction.
In 2015, then foreign secretary Aizaz Chaudhry confirmed that TNW could be used in potential future conflicts with India.
However, in reality, experts warn that these warheads can also have up to 300 kTonnes, or explosive yields of the bombs that destroyed Hiroshima. Not only is such an explosion disastrous, but some experts say it could have a major impact on Pakistan’s own border groups.
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