a The ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine remains a distant prospect, and Europe has slowly made progress towards creating a “power of security” to support “power of security.” American military aid is declining and will soon be completely exhausted unless it is updated by Donald Trump. According to supporters, the best way to ensure Ukraine’s safety is to ensure it is armed with teeth. Therefore, on March 19, the European Commission outlined the two-part Ukrainian Porcupine Strategy.
First, Europe will source more munitions and weapons systems on behalf of Ukraine, including key air defense missiles. Second, it will boost Ukraine’s own defense industry, known as “the most effective and cost-effective way to support Ukraine’s military efforts.” The plan is the brainchild of former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Karas, who is now the top diplomat of the European Union. She hopes to double military aid to Ukraine this year by 400 billion euros ($44 billion).
It is persuasive when it comes to investments in the arms industry of Ukraine. Ukraine was a major weapons manufacturer during the Soviet era, but the industry largely disappeared after independence in 1991. Nevertheless, there were engineering bases and new technological sectors that flourished three years ago when Russia began a full-scale infringement. The country had its foundation. There are many engineering schools and universities that have moved to defense with solid manufacturing sectors and highly specialized knowledge. “Development has been very active since 2022. There is a constant innovation process,” he adds. Normally, weapon procurement takes years in the West, but in Ukraine it can be translated into weapons by soldiers within a few months.
Last year, the Ukrainian arms company drove away a billion-dollar kit, according to a March report by another think tank, the Ukrainian Institute for Future Research (UIF). This represents an extraordinary triple increase since 2023, and 10 times since 2022. More than 800 private and state-owned businesses in the defense sector employ 300,000 skilled workers. Oleksandr Kamyshin, who oversees the defense industry for Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, said production will be around $15 billion this year, but the sector has the capacity to produce around $35 billion. The constraint is simply a lack of money, and he hopes that his allies will support him.
It is not clear what share of Ukrainian military needs is being met through local production. The UIF report says that it is 30%, but Zagorodnyuk believes it is close to 50%. What is undoubtedly uncertain is that despite Russia’s constant strike at factories, production is steadily rising. “Some facilities have been attacked more than five times,” Zagorodnik said. “But they survive.” Both factories are dispersed and vast, making them resilient to attacks.
Ukraine is planning to produce 5m of first-person view (FPV) drones that dominate the battlefield compared to last year’s 2m. It aims to create 30,000 larger long-range drones that could collide deep into Russia. Zelensky set targets for 3,000 refined cruise missiles, including the new Long Neptune, with a range of 1,000km (which recently attacked an oil refinery in Crimea), and “missile durons” such as the turbojet-powered Palianytsia. Ukraine is also testing its own ballistic missiles with Russian targets. These are extremely fast and are difficult to intercept. Missile expert Fabian Hoffman thinks these numbers for big missiles may be ambitious.
Innovation has brought Ukrainian electronic tank technology to the cutting edge. Niko Lange, a former German defensive supervisor, believes his capabilities will outweigh the capabilities of both Russian and Western systems. One recent success is the rematch that scrambles the guidance system of Russian glide bombs that had been destroying Ukraine’s defensive position.
Ukraine is also driving the production of traditional materials. Last year, it sent 2.5 million gun fires and mortar shells to the forefront, supporting a partnership between Norway’s Nammo and KNDS, a Franco-German company. (However, many Ukrainian-made mortar shells had serious quality issues.) Monthly production of the highly acclaimed Bordanana self-planted how shellguns made by the Ukrainian KZVV accelerates from 6 to 20. With European funding, production of Bordanana could double.
However, there is a big gap in what Ukraine can produce, and joint ventures with European and American companies are important. The armored vehicle chassis needed to bring the troops to the forefront will still need to be imported. German defense giant Rheinmetall recently opened the first of two Ukraine factories to create the Lynx infantry combat vehicle.
Another important challenge is to reduce reliance on Ukraine’s western air defense system, particularly the US system. The amount needed is “so vast enough that you can’t come across imports,” says Zagorodnyuk. In January, the country’s commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, confirmed that Ukraine was developing a system that could shoot down ballistic missiles. A joint venture with French company Thales, part of a consortium creating the Samp-T Air-Defense system, provides advanced radar and access to Optoelectronics.
Direct European investment in Ukrainian defence companies is hampered by the country’s dangerous legal system and low credit ratings. Lange says investment should go to more dynamic private companies, not state-owned companies. The supply chain of Ukrainian companies is also facing problems. Fabrice Potier, former director of NATO policy and planning, is worried about the drone’s dependence on Chinese components. He says Europe should provide Ukrainians with “opticals, gyroscopes, sensors, flight controllers.” Zagorodnyuk believes that Europe can give Ukraine an advantage over Russia by sending advanced machine tools, components and software.
The easiest way to put a kit into a Ukrainian fighter jet’s hand, which almost everyone agrees with, is the “Danish model.” Ukraine has identified priorities. Denmark pays. Danish experts evaluate suppliers and oversee order fulfillment. Last year, the Danes purchased 18 Bordanah How shellguns, which went straight to the Ukrainian army. This was followed by funding for long-range drones and missile systems. The funding included €102 million from the Danish National Ukraine Fund, €20 million from Sweden, €2.7 million from Iceland, and €390 million from interest generated by frozen Russian assets. On April 3, Denmark pledged an additional 264 million euros. Ukraine hopes that at least 1 billion euros will be found in this year’s initiative. Kamisin said “more than five” European countries use the Danish model.
Unfortunately, Ms. Karas’ plans collapsed at the European Summit on March 20th. She was accused of failing to lay the foundations of diplomacy to get her leaders to agree in advance. In the end it was dehydrated. Five billion euros will be spent on ammunition. Ms. Karas is determined to revive the plan. If she fails, Europe will abandon the fastest and most effective way for Ukraine to protect itself. ■
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