“mEvery person has a vague sense that something is no longer right in the situation in our country and in our world. “Written on his final “Merzmeil” dispatch before the German election at Friedrich Merz on Sunday. Friedrich Merz will undoubtedly take over as the 10th Prime Minister of the Federal Republic after the vote, but rather the optimism of the embarrassing leaders in waiting, provides the truth of the dirt speakers. “Unlike so many federal elections,” Merz wrote. This year, it is “marked by great uncertainty and sudden changes.” The National Mood Survey agrees. Only 18% of Germans believe the country is on the right path. Such uncertainty is rarely seen in election campaigns in Europe’s largest economy.
It’s not difficult to see the reason. The foundations of post-war prosperity are eroded. Ukraine’s invasion of Ukraine not only exposed German reliance on Russian gas, but also the vapility of hope that deepening the trade link would protect peace. Donald Trump is destroying assumptions about America’s location in European security architectures held faster in Germany than anywhere else in the western half of the old continent.
There is a growing sense that domestic order is also falling apart. Irregular migration has fallen from its peak in 2015-16, far away, but has been carried out at unsustainable levels for years. A series of horrifying asylum seekers have avoided deportation and built up the failure of naked authorities. The latest on February 21, a young Syrian refugee seriously injured a Spanish tourist in a knife attack at the Holocaust Memorial in Berlin. Economically, many countries have seen incumbents falling down by electors tired of spiral living costs, but in Germany this is a deeper mal for the country’s first business model There is lazy feeling. Industrial giants like Bosch and Thyssenkrupp have cut jobs significantly, and research suggests more layoffs are ahead. Real GDP has barely been occurring for six years. No one knows what to do about the automotive industry. “Nothing works in this country anymore” will become more familiar (if exaggerated) modest, especially on rail platforms.
This uncertainty is that Germany (AFD) has promoted a right-right alternative to previously unimaginable levels. If it could occupy nearly a quarter of seats in the next aisle, and the election results would force Merz’s Christian Democratic Union to force an unwieldy tripartite coalition that encompasses the other two major parties, The AFD remains as the only important thing. Opposition. “Firewalls” placed around AFDs that prohibit any form of cooperation at the federal or state level will ensure that Germany remains in a rapidly declining set of European countries where hard rights play a role in government. Guaranteed. However, the incentive for AFD to moderate is also removed. In addition to the Austrian Liberal Party, it is one of the most radical political parties of the populist right parties that strain politics across Europe.
Merz said his failure to address Germany’s most pressing issue is that he sees as a stagnant economy and irregular immigration, so that the AFD could win the next election in 2029. I’m warning. I tend to talk first and think about it later. Social Democrats (SPD) incumbent Olaf Scholz and Scholz’s party-political opposition but equal temperament Angela Merkel has given German voters more than the country’s increased management It provided a comforting promise that it was not necessary. (It was Mr. Scholz’s misfortune that this recipe became uncontroversial and outdated during his tenure.) In contrast, Merz, at least, rhetorically, himself as a kind of agent of rupture. I present it. “The business model in this country is gone,” he told the economist recently. It is impossible to imagine passing the lips of either of his two predecessors.
But in all things, the decision to drive one wise exception: a non-binding move on the illegal transition by voting from the AFD – MR Merz’s campaign is marked deliberately and even more prominently by the unconscious. It’s there. His relief to fix Germany’s economic illness begins by working on red tape and reducing welfare roles. His Christian Democratic Union (CDU) manifesto is packed with unpaid tax cuts. The German economy has many pockets of lasting success and growth. But from demographics to growing commercial competition with China, its structural problems require more serious surgery.
When it comes to foreign policy, Merz has at least the right instinct. If Scholz doesn’t seem to notice the world has changed in Trump’s election, Merz suggests his willingness to discuss previous taboo subjects, such as expanding the French nuclear umbrella. . He detects appetite due to strong German voices among German European partners, and knows that defense spending will require a significant boost, but he explains how to pay for it. I’m struggling with this. But just as Trump’s Ukrainian policy is shaped, the true test will take place after the election and before Merz takes office, which could possibly take months.
Once installed as Prime Minister, Merz says his priorities will soon show the Germans that politicians can get things done. But first, he must negotiate a coalition. If numbers are allowed, Merz will likely ask for work with the SPD. Germany’s main central left and central right parties appear to have won significantly fewer victory than half of the first votes in modern history. Perhaps that doesn’t mean it needs to be a muddy consensus-seeking machine that defined German policymaking for most of the last 20 years. The 3-party alliance is a much more troublesome outlook.
The Germans learned that lesson from Scholz’s “Traffic Lights” Union, the least popular government in living memory. But they don’t have much time for Merz either. His success mainly depends on the unpopularity of his enemies. Just a month ago, the CDU and its Bavarian sister party could cut 30%, a lower score than the 2021 federal election bar. Be in office against the backdrop of a world quickly covered in ways that do not work for the benefits of the slump voters, the flatline economy and Europe. That’s an enviable job. ■
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