On a weekday in February, politicians and military personnel were crammed into a popular event centre in Nairobi’s central business district, leading to a consensus on forming a new government.
However, instead of the red and black Kenya flags, Sudan flags adorn the halls. Instead of Kenyan politicians, everyone sitting in the seat has allied with Sudan’s Quick Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary organization that had shattered the country by the Continuing War with the Sudanese Army (SAF).
Massive protests from the Sudanese government, its people, and several foreign governments, including Torkiye and Saudi Arabia, have followed the RSF move. But the rage is also directed towards the Kenyan government for the seeming support of the paramilitary. The SAF-led government, now based in Port Sudan, reminded me of Kenya’s ambassador in February. When RSF signed the “Transition Constitution” again in Nairobi last week, SAF didn’t write words.
“These clear stances confirm the irresponsible stance in embracing the RSF militia, embracing the president of Kenya’s presidency,” the SAF-led government said in a statement on Sunday, adding that Kenya is a “fraudulent nation.”
Last month, the signature of the RSF’s “Sudan Establishment Charter” paves the way for parallel governments of RSF’s territorial territories, including the capital, Hartzm and the western regions of Darfur.
For analysts, the fact that such a divisive move was allowed in Nairobi means that Kenya is not neutral.
“In football terminology, this is a diplomatic goal,” says Kenya-based policy expert Abdullahi Boru Halafe, who works for the refugee international. The outcome of such a move towards Kenya’s reputation is expensive and the damage “takes time to fix it,” he added.
The recent invasion of President William Root’s government is just the latest diplomatic disaster. Clashes with the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) remain simmering over hosting the rebel group in Nairobi in late 2023. Analysts said the positioning of the routes at the two events was a significant policy shift for a country that was once considered an impartial regional leader where peace talks between the Somali fighting factions and Sudan were once held.
Sudan’s division line?
The battle in Sudan first broke out in April 2023 after RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan “Hemetti” Dagaro and SAF chief General Abdel Fatta al-Burhan collapsed. The two leaders previously took part in a coup, ending a transitional government, including civilians, but subsequent power struggles ended the alliance.
More than 60,000 people have been killed and 11 million people have been exiled in the war. Both sides have been accused by the United Nations of potential war crimes in combat. However, there are more serious allegations against the RSF. The RSF comes from fighter jets primarily from the nomadic “Arab” tribes of Darfur. The United Nations last year said the RSF had a “terrifying” campaign against sedentary “non-Arab” Masarit people in West Darfur, saying the attack could be a “indicator of genocide.” In January, the US declared that the RSF was violating “genocide” and targeted people “ethnically.”
Egypt and Intergovernmental Authorities (IGAD), a coalition of Northeast African states including Egypt, Kenya and Sudan, have attempted to negotiate peace talks, but they have largely failed.
After the first RSF meeting in Nairobi in February, the Kenyan government defended against backlash from Sudan and opposition politicians in their homes. In a statement, Foreign Secretary Musalia Mudavadi said Nairobi actually plays a peaceful role.
“The table of roadmap by the RSF in Nairobi and the Sudan civilian group and the proposals of leaders are consistent with Kenya’s role in peace negotiations and require that the parties to the conflict be provided with a nonpartisan platform to seek solutions,” Mudavadi said.
However, some Sudan opposed it. There were private groups at the RSF conference, which included some from Darfur, but Sudanese political analyst Shaza El Mahdi said peace negotiations would be null because the SAF does not exist.
“I don’t buy it at all,” El Mahdi told Al Jazeera about Mudavadi’s statement. “For RSF, this encounter with this civilian is of branding to wash their image. It shows us a big alarm as Sudanese, as the RSF places the first stone on the line to divide Darfur from the rest of the country. It’s a divisive move.”
Moreover, RSF is likely to use Nairobi as a launchpad to create some form of legitimacy, an analyst working at the International Private Enterprise Center added. But the move has affected how Sudanese perceived the Kenyan government, she said.
“Personally, I don’t support RSF or SAF because both sides are perpetrators and should face justice,” Elmerdy said. “However, many Sudanese people prefer SAF and view it as a better alternative, and now people believe that Kenya supports RSF against Sudan.”
Some observers pointed to the “friendship” between Ruto and Hemetti as one possible reason for Nairobi’s appearance with the RSF.
In January 2024, Ruto hosted Hemedi. Hemedi appeared on regional tours and was also welcomed by the rage of the SAF government in Uganda and Ethiopia. After that, after the route travels to Juba, South Sudan, the “bromance” between route and hemedi intensifies, speaking for a November state visit. President Jet with Ruto was Abdulrahim Dagallo, Hemedi’s brother and deputy commander of RSF.
However, others pointed to the recent economic agreement between Kenya and the United Arab Emirates. The deal, signed in January, shows double investment by the UAE in Kenya. Already, Nairobi is waiting to receive a $1.5 billion UAE loan to fund budget deficits that came from borrowing during the previous administration.
Peacekeeping forces and “Highwaist Pants”
In December 2023, similar to the Sudan catastrophe, Nairobi played the host of the DRC’s rebel leaders, sparking a deep line between the two countries despite the Kenyan government claiming it was trying to create peace.
In a creeping advance at the time of the M23, Bertrand Bisimwa, the rebel group that has been backed by Rwanda and seized major eastern DRC cities in recent weeks, met Corneille Nangaa, the chief level of the DRC’s former election commission, to announce a political alliance. Their news came from the lobby of the Nairobi Hotel.
It surprised political observers not only because of Bishymwa, but also because Kenyan soldiers of the time led peacekeepers from the East African Community (EAC) to carry out a volatile ceasefire between the DRC’s army and many armed groups, including the M23.
Several issues had already arisen between Nairobi and Kinshasa over the M23. For several months, the DRC has accused Kenya-led peacekeepers, which were first deployed in November 2022, of “live together” with rebels.
That’s because Kinshasa wanted the EAC troops to stop in the face of the M23. This is the biggest headache. However, Kenya-led forces refused to attack, claiming that their mission was to oversee the withdrawal of armed groups and implement an agreed ceasefire. Tensions rose. In some parts of the DRC, protests and riots broke out as angry Congolese people attacked peacekeeping forces and the United Nations from the EAC for not stopping the violence of the M23. In December 2023, President of Congo, President Felix Tssisekedi sent EAC troops packaging.
The arrival of the M23 head in Nairobi was against the background. In an angry statement after the meeting, Kinshasa ordered Root to arrest the two rebel leaders, but the request was frankly denied.
“Kenya is a democracy,” Root replied in the release. “We cannot arrest people who make a statement. We will not arrest people for making a statement, we will arrest criminals.”
Just a year later, M23 seized the main eastern towns of Sesame and Bukabu. According to the DRC government, the war drove hundreds of thousands of Congoes, killing at least 7,000 people since the war intensified in January.
“Can anyone trying to mediate peace also deal with those who have taken weapons against the people of Congo?” Kambale Musavuli, Congo’s human rights advocate and analyst at the Research Centre at Congo-Kinshasa, told Al Jazeera.
“Regardless of the explanation that Ruto may have given him, I think he was trying to get into the Congo problem. I ask if the belligerent Kenyan citizens who picked up the gun are allowed to hold a press conference in Kinshasa and if Kenya responded in the same way. [that Ruto did]? ”
Many Congoes in Mousavri were already not fond of Ruto because of their “intimate friendship” with Rwandan President Paul Kagame, and because of their “despicable” attitude towards the country.
Analysts referenced the gaffe Ruto, made on the campaign trail that angered DRC diplomats and hurt many Congolese people on the 2022 campaign trail. Speaking to the crowd of small business owners, Root had promised more agricultural income as he planned to pave the way for the sale of livestock to DRC, saying, “The population is 90 million, but they don’t own cattle.” Ruto also referred to a common style in Congo music videos, and was called Congo, the people who “wear high-waisted pants.” He later apologized for the gaffe after Congolese politicians expressed his anger.
“When the Root election took place, we at DRC were not rooting for Ruto. We already knew his attitude towards us, so we wanted a replacement,” added Mousavri.
From Peacekeepers to Side Takers?
Long before the rift with its current neighbour, Kenya was once considered a broker of East African peace.
In 2004, under the leadership of President Mwai Kibaki, war-stricken Somali war factions gathered in Nairobi to agree to a deal to end the bloody civil war that had been raging since the collapse of dictator Mohamed Siad Bale in 1991.
Just a year later, Kenya once again led Sudan’s comprehensive peace agreement and played the host. This is a framework of peace that ended the internal conflict in Sudan and ultimately paved the way for the establishment of South Sudan in 2011.
Now, under Ruto’s administration, Kenya is not only struggling to maintain that image, but also appears to be actively causing trouble, analysts said. Experts say that since Root took office in 2022, not one but two foreign factions took office, the alliance with two foreign factions, which seemingly have jeopardized Kenya’s former regional status and weakened its reputation as honest interlocutors, is a seemingly alliance.
Even inside, Kenya has been shaken by tensions that have not been seen since the post-election crisis in 2007. Young-led protests struck the country in June and July last year as thousands of people opposed Root’s higher tax plans. For weeks, the protesters were shot by Kenyan police. According to the Kenya Human Rights Commission, at least 50 people have been killed, hundreds have been injured and many others have been missing. Social media Kenyans are still calling on Root to step down with the hashtag #rutomustgo.
“The Sudan and the DRC both exposed Kenya’s diplomatic Achilles heal,” Harake said. “Because of all its internally destructive politics, Kenya’s foreign policy, although not particularly principled, was not self-harm.”
Everything has changed, he added.
“now [Kenya] I was on my side. It is a sudden decline in Kenya’s diplomatic prestige, as he is engaged in the current genocide wash from where the peace process is negotiated. ”
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