A solar storm comparable to the infamous Carrington event could wipe out all the satellites orbiting Earth, leaving us in an unstable and costly predicament, according to an alarming new simulation. And experts say such powerful solar storms are inevitable and will hit Earth sooner or later.
On September 1, 1859, British astronomer Richard Carrington observed a brilliant flash of light emanating from a giant sunspot, about the size of Jupiter. He had witnessed the most powerful solar flare in recorded history, followed by a major disruption to the Earth’s magnetic field known as a geomagnetic storm that raged for almost a week and colored the sky with widespread aurora borealis.
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The simulation was part of a tabletop exercise conducted by researchers from multiple ESA divisions at the European Space Operations Center in Darmstadt, Germany. The simulation was conducted in preparation for the launch of ESA’s Sentinel-1D radio imaging satellite, currently scheduled for November 4.
In a hypothetical scenario, an X45-sized solar flare, about five times more powerful than the most powerful solar flare in the current solar cycle, would suddenly erupt from the Sun, showering Earth with a powerful wave of radiation without warning. About 15 hours later, after another wave of radiation, a giant cloud of fast-moving plasma known as a coronal mass ejection (CME) slams into Earth at more than 4.4 million miles per hour (7.1 million km per hour), creating a Carrington-like magnetic storm.
While researchers’ reactions to this scenario focused on how to protect Sentinel 1D, the simulation also demonstrated how a global constellation of orbiting spacecraft would respond in such an event.
ESA’s Space Weather Modeling Coordinator Jorge Amaya said in a statement: “The huge flow of energy emitted by the Sun has the potential to damage all satellites in orbit.” “Satellites in low Earth orbit are usually better protected from the hazards of space by their atmosphere and magnetic fields, but when an explosion on the scale of the Carrington event occurs, no spacecraft is safe.”
There were three main threats the satellite faced during the exercise. The first is the first wave of radiation from a solar flare. This could permanently or temporarily disable satellites that are too far from Earth’s internal magnetic field. Second, the trailing radiation wave confused navigation systems, increasing the likelihood of a collision. The third was a CME, which absorbed energy from solar storms and caused the upper atmosphere to bulge outward.
Atmospheric expansion is perhaps the most dangerous aspect of this triple threat, increasing the drag on the satellite by up to 400%, dragging the spacecraft towards Earth, and potentially causing the satellite to burn up in the atmosphere or crash into the Earth’s surface.
We got a glimpse of what the effects of such an event would be like during May 2024’s record geomagnetic storm, which was the most powerful of its kind in 21 years and caused widespread auroral displays.
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In addition to knocking a small number of satellites out of low-Earth orbit, the 2024 storm significantly disrupted GPS systems, resulting in farm machinery failures and approximately $500 million in losses for U.S. farmers.
But that’s just a drop in the bucket compared to the damage caused by storms like Carrington. A 2013 study analyzing the impact of such an event on North America’s power grid found that the United States could suffer up to $2.6 trillion in damage, while the Planetary Society said the true global cost is “beyond our understanding.”
Not “if” but “when”
Tabletop exercises like this are important because storms like Carrington could happen again.
“The important question is not if this will happen, but when,” Gustavo Baldo Carvalho, a spacecraft operations expert who led the Sentinel 1D simulation, said in a statement.
Experts believe that a Carrington-class storm occurs on average every 500 years, giving the probability of such an event occurring this century about 12%.
The training is further evidence that we are currently not equipped to handle this kind of extreme scenario, but researchers hope that with continued training for this eventuality, we will be better able to cope with it.
“Simulating such effects… [an] “This event is similar to predicting the impact of a pandemic. We only realize the real impact on society after it happens, but we need to be prepared and have plans in place to respond immediately,” Amaya said.
But the number of satellites orbiting Earth is expected to increase at least tenfold by 2050, so the longer we have to wait for the next big storm, the more expensive it will be.
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