Rivian plans to launch the earliest new all-electric vehicle in the U.S. with the upcoming R2 SUV, according to a company statement and a TechCrunch analysis of historical sales data.
If Rivian is successful, it would be a strong start for a product that founder and CEO RJ Scaringe said “might be the most important thing we’ve ever launched.”
I have no choice but to do so. Rivian’s future, and potential for profitability, depends on the success of R2. If the company struggles to expand production and sales of R2, shareholders may flee. At the very least, it raises questions about the company’s strategy to burn through billions of dollars now to prepare for mass market size.
Rivian told investors last month that it expects to sell 20,000 to 25,000 R2s this year, with the first SUVs likely to reach customers in June once production begins. Even if Rivian hits the lower end of that target, its sales rate will outpace any other comparable sub-$60,000 electric car except for the Tesla Model Y.
Model Y was released in March 2020, and sales exceeded 20,000 units in just about four months. Rivian aims to accomplish that in about six months. That’s about the same amount of time it took the Honda Prologue to reach that sales milestone when it debuted in 2024.
The Chevrolet Equinox EV was the next fastest EV to reach 20,000 units sold in the United States, taking about eight months from its launch in 2024. Ford’s Mustang Mach-E took a similar amount of time to launch in 2021, while Korean EVs like the Hyundai Ioniq 5 and Kia EV6 took about 10 and 11 months, respectively.
Cars that had rough launches, like Tesla’s Model 3 (the beginning of Elon Musk’s famous “production hell”) and the Chevrolet Blazer EV (which suffered massive discontinuations and recalls), took just as long or longer.
tech crunch event
San Francisco, California
|
October 13-15, 2026
Rivian is bringing the R2 to a completely different market. Nearly all of these other models benefited from the $7,500 federal EV tax credit that was repealed by Congress and President Trump last September. Major automakers are scaling back or canceling some electric vehicle plans in response to the relaxation of emissions regulations. President Trump’s chaotic tariffs are also driving up the prices of vehicles, including Rivian’s existing lineup.
Scaringe translated these challenges into advantages, saying there are no options in the EV market, especially the more affordable ones. Rivian said prices for the R2 SUV will start at $45,000, with Scaringe positioning more affordability as key to mass-market success.
A lower starting price might increase the chances of the R2 getting off to a strong start, but neither Scaringe nor the company has said when they will actually launch the $45,000 version of the R2. Instead, the company plans to launch a high-trim version of the SUV with dual motors, but its price will almost certainly be higher.
Further pricing and details will be announced at an event on March 12th, but the company removed “Starting at $45,000” from the R2 section of its website in early February. Rivian told TechCrunch last month that it remains “committed” to its base price despite the changes. The company did not respond to an emailed request for comment on its R2 launch plans.
Despite headwinds against EVs in the U.S. at the moment, there appears to be strong demand for upcoming electric SUVs priced near or slightly above the R2, such as Volvo’s EX60, BMW’s iX3, and Mercedes-Benz GLC. However, these won’t arrive in the U.S. until later this year, giving R2 a competitive advantage, said Edmunds Consumer Insights Analyst Joseph Yun.
“[Scaringe is] Yun also said Rivian has been working hard to simplify the R2’s manufacturing process compared to current vehicles, which should allow the company to reach scale-up more quickly.
But some Wall Street analysts are skeptical. Last month, DA Davidson analyst Michael Schlisky lowered Rivian’s price target, citing the company’s “aggressive” R2 launch expectations.
Barclays analyst Dan Levy said in a note last year that he expects the average transaction price for Rivian’s R2, which will be built in Illinois, could remain at $60,000 or more for “the next several years” until the new Georgia plant comes online.
Source link
