on On July 4, 2024, Labour Party acquired a drastic mission from British voters. Since 2001, the 411-seat haul has been the largest of any party. However, the prime minister has historically won a majority with a low share of votes, and his party’s popularity has fallen dramatically since he came to power. General elections are unlikely until 2029, but politically lifelong – the latest polls show that UK politics is more fragmented than ever before. Instead of traditional two-party domination, voters are evenly divided into five parties. Below we explore how votes are changing across different demographic groups in the UK.
The decline in popularity among workers is perhaps the most severe with young people. In the 2024 election, Labour won nearly half of the votes for people under the age of 35. Today they hold about a third of their grip. Because young voters are split to the right to reform towards the UK and the green and liberal Democrats on the left. Reform is now the most preferred party among people aged 45 to 64, leading the Conservative leader among people over the age of 64.
In 2024, workers acquired seating strips from conservatives from the so-called red walls in the Midlands and northern England. Based on the current vote, if today’s election was held, many of the 201 seats won in these two regions would be lost again. Workers are also facing new challenges north of the border. The 37 seats scooped up last July are vulnerable to the revived Scottish National Party.
Overall, there is only a small difference between the voting behavior of men and women in the UK. But if UK reforms can improve its bluish image, they could be better in polls. In the 2024 general election, the party attracted 17% of male voters, but only 12% of female voters. The gap lasts. Close that, reform leader Nigel Farage could become a serious challenger to top work.
Since 2023, Reform UK has garnered support among blue-collar workers resonating with anti-EU and anti-immigrant sentiments. Not only do they abandon the large numbers of blue-collar voters, but workers also don’t vote much among white-collar voters. Both the Liberal Democrats and the Greens are increasingly attractive destinations for educated British people.
To be re-elected, you need to attract new voters. And, importantly, you need to keep people who have voted for you in the past. But British voters are increasingly whimsical bunches that do not show loyalty that was common before a generation. Half of those who voted conservatives in 2019 did so again in 2024. Regarding current trends, Labour could have similar problems in the next general election.
Source: UK election studies. deltapoll; Find it out now. House Library. Ipsos; more common. Omnisis; Opinions; Politico; Redfield and Wilton. Savanta; Stack data exchange. Survival; Techne; UK Voting Report; yougov; Economist
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