gOD may not be a gambler, but his creatures are certainly true. With the Pope Conclave, scheduled to begin on May 7th, punters from Polymarket, Kalshi and Betfair in three forecast markets (three forecast markets) have already bet $19 million on identifying the next clergy. It will be adjusted to suit inflation. This is almost 50 times more than in 2013, when Argentina’s Jorge Bergolio became Pope Francis.
It may seem strange that such an inexplicable process can be predicted at all. However, the Pope’s gamble has a long history. Roman bankers were betting until 1503. Alessandro Damassenni Peretti di Montalto, a 16th century cardinal, is said to have placed a 10-1 bet on Francesco Sforza di Santa Fiora. (Damasceni Peretti had a big bill. He was said to have placed a musician’s staff on standby and sang solos at the palace.)
Make a hole
Pope Con Club Gambling Market, %
So far, these odds have been pretty stable. In theory, they must remain as is even after the procedure begins. The church “prohibits 135 electors from external contact, except in cases of proven urgent need, for excommunication. The same is “legally present in the Vatican City” for others. The only clue bettors get is the number of vote rounds that have failed to produce the Pope. The results of each failed tally are announced to the world with a stream of black smoke from the cardinals’ burning vote.
However, in 2013, the secret veil that gives Conclave its name (from Latin cum clave, “with the key”) proved to be surprisingly porous. On the second morning of the vote, Gacomo Galeazzi, Vatican correspondent for Italian newspaper La Stanca, reported that Belgorio, previously not considered a leading candidate, was close to the top of the vote. Just 34 minutes after the second black smoke overflowed, Galeazzi posted an update to name three effective finalists. It was later confirmed that everything led the first round of the vote.
Betfair’s traders that year failed to move into the news. This time they may act faster as they have more money on the line. The sudden shift in the chart after the cardinals are isolated is the cause of suspected loose lips inside or around the Sistine Chapel. ■
Source: Kalshi, Polymarket, Betfair, Economist
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